Explainer: what is ocean energy?
Posted: May 23, 2013 Filed under: Feature Articles | Tags: ocean energy, renewable, the conversation, tides, wave Leave a comment »
Ocean power can be harnessed for electricity generation using both wave energy and the tide. Image: Scottish Government.
By Jenny Hayward, Research Scientist, Energy Technology and Chris Knight, Research Engineer, Energy Technology.
Renewable ocean energy harnesses the power of the oceans to produce electricity. This can be done in several ways, but the resources that have the most immediate potential in terms of energy production for Australia and globally are:
- waves: using wave energy converters (WEC) to generate electricity
- tides: using tidal barrages, fences and turbines to generate electricity.
Several wave energy converters, tidal turbines and tidal stream devices are at various stages of development in Australia. While there are many more devices in Australia, those mentioned below reflect the diversity of the technologies.
Ocean energy in Australia
Carnegie is a private company that has developed wave energy technology. It has one wave unit deployed off the coast of Garden Island in Western Australia, supplying power to the Royal Australian Navy base located on the island. There are plans to deploy further devices.
This unit is a “point absorber”, which means it can accept wave energy from any direction. It is out of sight under the waves and works by pumping water to the surface and through a hydro turbine to generate electricity. This high pressure ocean water can also be used in a desalination plant to produce fresh water.
Oceanlinx has several designs under development. They are oscillating water columns, which operate like a blowhole; waves flow into and out of a tunnel, displacing air and forcing it through a turbine. These devices are a “line absorber”. This means that they need to be oriented toward the wave front to generate energy.
Ocean Power Technologies Australasia plan to construct a 19 MW point absorber wave farm off the coast of Victoria. The rise and fall of the waves causes a floating buoy to move up and down. The oscillating action is converted to electricity via a mechanical generator.
BioPower Systems have both wave and tidal energy devices. A pilot plant is being developed at Port Fairy in Victoria using the BioWave wave energy converter. The BioWave is an inverted pendulum design and it mimics the motion of kelp in the ocean by swinging back and forth with wave motion. This swinging motion is turned into electrical energy.
Tenax have plans to deploy tidal turbines which can be used to harness both tidal and ocean current flows. They want to deploy the technology off the coast of Darwin to take advantage of the larger tides in that region.
International testing
Each of these technologies has key advantages and disadvantages over alternative renewable technologies. On the positive side, ocean energy is more forecastable and consistent than wind and solar photovoltaics. But the ocean is a tough environment in which to operate continuously over long periods of time.
Internationally, there are a number of marine energy test centres in countries such as the United Kingdom, USA, Ireland and Netherlands for testing the capabilities of devices in the oceans over a longer period of time.
A wave farm was constructed in Portugal using the Pelamis device, but due to financial uncertainty in the region it was abandoned. The Pelamis device is like a long snake that sits on the surface and individual parts move and drive a hydraulic fluid through a motor.
A wave test facility has been operating at Lysekil in Sweden since 2001 using an array of Seabased AB point absorber wave energy devices. This site is now being turned into a full‐size wave farm using the same technology. The first generator was installed in March 2013.
As the UK and Ireland have large tidal resources, a tidal turbine has been deployed off the coast of Northern Ireland, supplying electricity to the grid.
An alternative to other renewables?
There is still much to be understood about the technologies and the ocean renewable resource itself. More detailed resource mapping needs to be undertaken in Australia to identify the best locations for wave and tidal farms.
The vast majority of devices under development globally have not been trialled at sea, which can be a very testing environment. Devices also have to be integrated with the electricity grid to examine the effect this intermittent resource can have on grid stability.
Projections show that the cost of electricity in the year 2030 with carbon pricing from ocean renewable energy could range from A$110‐325 MWhr. This compares well with other renewable technologies, with solar PV A$60‐210 MWhr, wind A$55‐120 MWhr and solar CSP A$90‐300 MWhr. For comparison, existing coal fired power costs around A$80 MWhr and new coal‐fired power can cost A$125‐195 MWhr.
By combining Australian wave energy resource data and the performance curve of one type of wave energy converter, the annual amount of electricity (MWh) that could be generated from farms of such devices is shown in the figure above. This shows that the best places for wave power in Australia are along the south coast of Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania.
Tidal power is currently only cost-competitive in areas with large tidal resources. However, there may be niche opportunities in remote areas which rely on more expensive generation options, such as in northern Australia and regions of the Bass Strait.
The potential for wave energy in Australia in particular is large. CSIRO modelling has shown that by 2050, wave energy has the resource and the economic potential to supply up to 10% of Australia’s future projected electricity demand. Wave energy could also have an impact globally with significant potential in Europe, Canada, USA and South Africa.
This article was originally published at The Conversation. Read the original article.
How is atmospheric CO2 measured in the Southern Hemisphere?
Posted: May 21, 2013 Filed under: Feature Articles | Tags: carbon dioxide, greenhouse gas, southern hemisphere, the conversation Leave a comment »
Why does the atmosphere over Tasmania record lower levels of CO2 than that over Hawaii? Image: Ula Majewski.
By Paul Fraser, Stream Leader, Changing Atmosphere.
Last week the greenhouse gas monitoring site at Mauna Loa in Hawaii recorded daily levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide that approached the 400 parts per million molar (ppm) benchmark.
Annual mean Southern Hemispheric levels of carbon dioxide, as recorded at the Cape Grim Air Baseline Air Pollution Monitoring Station in north-west Tasmania, are expected to reach the 400ppm milestone during 2016.
Where do we measure atmospheric carbon dioxide?
Cape Grim is a key international monitoring facility, operated by the Bureau of Meteorology, and is where much of CSIRO’s international global atmospheric research is centred. Measurements have been made here since 1976.
Cape Grim is one of three key sites identified by the World Meteorological Association for long-term carbon dioxide measurements. The others are Mauna Loa in Hawaii (since 1956), which last week measured daily recordings exceeding the 400ppm benchmark, and Barrow in Alaska (since 1973).
CSIRO has also measured Southern Hemispheric carbon dioxide over the past 2000 years in air trapped in Antarctic surface ice – called firn – and deeper ice cores.
Why do we measure atmospheric carbon dioxide?
Carbon dioxide is one of the primary greenhouse gases. Others include methane, nitrous oxide and synthetic gases such as refrigerants and fire retardants.
Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are rising mainly because of the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation.
Increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere leads to climate change. The amount of warming produced by a given rise in greenhouse gas concentrations depends on feedback processes in the climate system, such as the water vapour response. This both amplifies, by water vapour, and dampens, by cloud formation, the temperature increase due to these long-lived greenhouse gases.
Over half of the carbon dioxide input to the atmosphere is absorbed by natural sinks in the land plants and oceans.
Land and ocean carbon dioxide sinks respectively removed 30% and 24% of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions over the period 2000-2008. This constitutes a massive natural ecosystem service helping to mitigate humanity’s emissions.
Why are southern hemisphere carbon dioxide levels lower?
Carbon dioxide is currently rising at close to, perhaps a little above, 2 parts per million molar (ppm) per year.
The annual mean carbon dioxide level at Mauna Loa is not expected to exceed 400ppm until 2015, although both Cape Grim and Mauna Loa may reach 400ppm a year earlier if the current growth rate of 2ppm per year accelerates.
Cape Grim baseline CO2 measurements in April 2013 averaged 392ppm for the month.
There is a clear difference between levels of carbon dioxide measured in the Southern and Northern hemispheres, because industrial and other population-based sources of carbon dioxide emissions are concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere.
What we are seeing at present in the Mauna Loa May measurements are observations fluctuating around 400ppm. These will return to sub-400ppm levels later this year (September) when absorption by vegetation – what’s known as the “annual carbon dioxide draw down” – will affect Northern Hemisphere atmospheric CO2 levels.
From measurement to action
Air and ice measurements allow us to trace the dramatic rise in carbon dioxide levels from about 280ppm before the start of the industrial era around the year 1800, to 392ppm in 2012. That’s an increase of 40%, largely due to human activities.
To have a 50:50 chance of keeping human-induced average global warming below 2°C, it will be necessary to stop almost all carbon dioxide emissions before cumulative emissions reach one trillion tonnes of carbon.
The world has already emitted more than half of this quota since the industrial revolution. At current accelerating growth rates for the combustion of fossil fuels, the rest will be emitted by the middle of this century.
Cape Grim measurements of carbon dioxide are publicly available at –http://www.csiro.au/greenhouse-gases/.
This article was originally published at The Conversation. Read the original article.
Smarty pants: wearable electronics will recharge your life
Posted: May 20, 2013 Filed under: Feature Articles | Tags: batteries, electronics, flexible, the conversation, wearable electronics 1 Comment »By Adam Best, Senior Research Scientist, Energy Technology.
Imagine having a wafer-thin touchscreen on your sleeve which, like a scene out of a Philip K. Dick novel, gives you all the functionality of a smartphone without the awkwardness of a cumbersome battery.
The best part about this scenario is it may not be as far from reality as you think.
The bulky packaging of batteries limits innovation of some of the amazing new, ultra-slim electronics today.
If you open up an iPhone 5, you’ll see that a large proportion of the phone’s volume is taken up by the battery.
But flexible batteries that can be incorporated into fabrics offer a game-changing way of powering personal devices – and take us into a new world of wearable electronics.
My colleagues and I form one of several applied research groups developing both flexible batteries and the energy harvesting systems needed to charge them.
The body electric
Piezo is a term derived from a Greek word meaning to squeeze or press, and piezoelectric materials generate electricity when they are pressured or twisted – enabling development of shoes, clothing or recreational gear that generate electricity from movement.
Flexible batteries can be used to store the captured energy from human movement via piezoelectric materials woven into fabrics or inserted into silicone rubber.
You could have a jacket that’s a wearable mobile phone, with a flexible electronic screen printed on the cuffs, flexible phone circuit boards woven into the fabric, and a microphone in the collar. Just input the number on your cuff, and start talking.
There would be no risk of running out of power mid-conversation – you’d just move your arms about to charge the batteries. The jacket would be washable – but you’d need another “phone jacket” on the day it was in the wash.
In a similar advance, a cocktail dress wired for Bluetooth that lights up when the wearer gets an incoming call won a design competition for a London College of Fashion student. It’s hard to ignore that kind of phone call.
Running with it
The same technology can power smart sports clothing, so that your jogging suit or cycling shorts could carry a global positioning system (GPS) unit and a fitness monitor powered by your movements as you pedal or run.
You could monitor and analyse your workout before you hit the shower. Australian Football League players already optimise their playing performance using GPS trackers carried between their shoulder blades.
Smart cycling shirts with pedal powered light emitting diode (LED) panels could help keep cyclists visible on the road – or give a turning signal on the back of their jacket.

CSIRO researcher Dr Anand Bhatt models a shirt with a pocket incorporating the CSIRO flexible battery, which can be used to power small consumer electronic devices.
In leisure applications, flexible batteries have multiple applications. Incorporating a flexible battery into a backpack means that you could charge your phone, MP3 player, or GPS unit from your backpack after a day’s hike.
Tent panels that incorporate flexible batteries could capture wind energy and use it to charge a personal computer, GPS or personal locator beacon, such as an Emergency Position Indicating Radiobeacon (EPIRB) – making searches for skiers and hikers lost in the bush easier.
The same technology is being used to capture and store energy to power military electronic equipment, so that soldiers in the field don’t have to carry extra weight of batteries.
On a larger scale, buildings made with fabrics which capture wind energy are proposed as a renewable power source.
Footpaths which capture energy from footsteps are on the market – there is even a dance floor which powers the air conditioning for an eco-nightclub using kinetic energy (energy of motion) from dancing patrons.
Clinical applications
In medical care, wearable electronics provide an opportunity for revolutionary advances. Wearable electronic shirts capable of powering automated injection devices could make life easier for patients who need regular injections of insulin or other drugs.

Temperature and EKG sensors and LEDs wrapped around a cardiac balloon catheter. The wires are stretchable coils. Image: jurvetson
A shirt incorporating a heart rate monitor could sense changes in heart rhythm in elderly or cardiac-impaired patients – and summon emergency services if patient health is severely compromised by a change in heart rate.
Best of all, wearable electronics provide non-intrusive monitoring – enabling patients to pursue normal daily life activities under medical care.
But for those of us for whom batteries are a constant item on the shopping list, perhaps the biggest change that wearable electronics offers is freedom from needing to buy spare batteries.
Now that will make a difference to my personal retail experience.
This article was originally published at The Conversation. Read the original article.
Cotton on to the awesomeness of plants
Posted: May 18, 2013 Filed under: Feature Articles, Random Stuff | Tags: Cotton, Fascination of Plants Day, plants, Plants Day Leave a comment »By Vanessa Hill
Happy Fascination of Plants Day! That is, if you’re not too busy celebrating Sea Monkey Day, Museum Day, or preparing for Pick Strawberries Day on Monday. It’s true there are many ‘days’ competing for our attention. But unlike picking strawberries, appreciating plants only takes a few moments. And plants are seriously amazing.
As a city dweller, plants were something I never really appreciated. Once I tried to grow a veggie patch on my balcony and I got a rash as soon as I put my hand within an inch of the tomato vine. I’m sure many city dwellers are plant aficionados, so maybe “naive urbanite” is a more fitting title for me.
Anyway, a few years back I moved to the Northern Territory. When I was walking to pick up the keys to my house I was fascinated, and somewhat confused, at the plants lining the footpath. The bush looked almost dead, but had an odd ‘flower’ on it. At the time I could only describe this as “a cotton bud”. Like the ones you buy in a packet from Coles. When I expressed my surprise to my new colleagues, they laughed at me. A lot.
I had no idea what a cotton plant looked like. I was just beginning a postgraduate degree in Environmental Management, and I only had a vague idea of where my food came from. Or how my clothing was made. I felt silly, and quite ignorant. As I spoke to more people about it, I realised it’s a common problem.
Generally people don’t have a strong appreciation of what plants do for us. We know that they convert carbon dioxide into oxygen, provide food, clothing and building materials. But we don’t appreciate this as these processes are so foreign, because our food comes from Coles, our clothes from Myer and our building materials from Bunnings. The appreciation in lost in not knowing how food travels from farm to plate, how fibres like cotton are spun into fabric.
Cotton, for example, has been cultivated for over 5,000 years all around the world. Despite the geographic divide between cotton farmers, the crop has been cleaned, spun and weaved in the same manner everywhere. Tiny cotton seeds are super durable, and can survive been blown for thousands of kilometres and even across bodies of water. And if you don’t think cotton is sexy, it’s a relative of the hibiscus, both belong to the Gossypium genus of plants.
CSIRO have been researching and growing cotton in country NSW for 40 years. Over that time, our research has improved yield, disease resistance and fibre quality. All while supporting a rural economy.
Next time you think plants are boring, think again. Think about what you had for breakfast, what your clothing is made out of and the amazing fact that they actually convert carbon dioxide into oxygen. Plants are seriously fascinating.
Disasters happen, but software shouldn’t be one of them
Posted: May 16, 2013 Filed under: Feature Articles | Tags: data, disaster, hazards, management, software, the conversation Leave a comment »
Getting the right information, in the right format, can be the difference between life and death. Image: Fox News Insider
By Ryan Fraser, Research Manager, Earth Science and Engineering and Arwen Cross, Science Communicator, Food Health and Life Sciences.
Imagine you’re a disaster manager and a large earthquake has just struck off the Australian coast. You know that part of the Australian coastline is about to be inundated by a tsunami but you need more information – and quickly. But what information do you need, and how do you get it?
The following might be on your need-to-know list: What size of tsunami will be created? What area will be flooded? How many people live in the exclusion zone? How many schools, hospitals and aged-care homes are inside? Which exit roads have bridges that are likely to withstand a flood of this scale?
With a team of experts you can find and collate this information, eventually. But you might have to contact several organisations that format their information in different ways.
Now imagine how much easier things would be if technology was available to pull information from multiple sources and feed them into the software of your choice.
You might want to use one piece of software for co-ordinating the response, then a second for recovery efforts and post-event analysis, and then a third for civil engineers designing new infrastructure.
We have some of these software tools already, but to enhance them we need to make it easier for them to utilise many sources of information in an assortment of formats.
The challenge is making the information “interoperable” – transforming it into formats that integrate with different software applications and modelling tools.
Managing disasters
In 2011, 322 natural disasters killed 30,773 people worldwide and inflicted US$366.1 billion worth of damage. Quite simply, the costs to human life and the economy make disaster management vital.
Modern disaster managers don’t just respond to events: they look at a spectrum of“Prevention, Preparedness, Response and Recovery”.
In Australia the national strategy for disasters focuses on building resilience, which is a community’s ability to withstand and recover from disaster events.
State and territory governments are largely responsible for responding to disasters. Volunteers and community organisations also contribute to disaster response and recovery efforts.
All hazards
Our research group in the Digital Productivity and Services Flagship is one of several at CSIRO involved in disaster research. CSIRO’s research into natural hazards ranges from flood modelling to bushfire research.
The focus in our group is how technology research can contribute to disaster management using an “all-hazards” approach. We’re bringing together CSIRO’s technologies for disaster management, but we also work closely with other organisations.
Using an “all-hazards” approach is important because disasters are often related. A storm that causes damage with high winds might also lead to flooding; or a bushfire and heatwave could be linked. Disaster managers need to be able to pull together data from diverse sources to consider all hazards affecting an area.
Our researchers have developed algorithms and methodologies that, when applied to data collected by various federal and state government agencies, can aid in the planning and prediction phases of managing natural hazard impacts.
In practice, this might mean rainfall data (available from the Bureau of Meteorology) in conjunction with terrain information (Geoscience Australia) can be analysed computationally to predict flooding and tsunami risk areas.
Computational and mathematical methods already contribute to disaster management; and if we can bring more data and models together in an easy-to-use system, technology could contribute better.
To do that the data has to be compatible with many software clients.
Data compatability
Dashboards and portals (websites that bring together information from diverse sources in a uniform way) let disaster managers make more insightful interpretations of data. Ideally they should take in a broad range of relevant details.
A fire portal could take in weather information, such as wind direction, but also information about fuel/vegetation types and topography (the lay of the land).
Such portals are already available, including one we developed that NSW Fire and Rescue is trialling. It brings together data from various federal and state agencies including Geoscience Australia and the Bureau of Meteorology.
This prototype portal gives us an idea of what can be achieved with an all-hazards software client, and lets disaster managers test it and tell us what they need.
The limitation to the portal is that it can only take in certain types of data.
A software exchange layer
To help portals use more types of data, we’re creating a something known as the Disaster Management Decision Support Platform. The platform will fit in behind the scenes, converting data and feeding it to client software including a range of dashboards and portals.
Our platform is part of an ongoing strategy with a five-year vision to enable greater integration between data, models and computational codes that relate to natural disaster knowledge building.
The platform works acts as an “exchange layer” (as per the diagram below) that will take information from data sources, transform it and feed it to the client software (which is the disaster management dashboard or portal).
The exchange layer has the job of making the data sources web accessible and converting them to formats that are interoperable between software clients.
It will also be able to integrate models, feeding data into them and then into client software. This means data can be processed in several ways before it reaches the client software.
Using the platform will allow client software designers to pull together more information in a single dashboard or portal without expending so much effort acquiring data and converting it between formats. That way more data sources can be used, making dashboards and portals better aids to decision-making.
So, to return to our original scenario, a large earthquake has just struck off the Australian coast. As the disaster manager, you have to make decisions, and quickly.
Now imagine an all-hazards portal that could use everything from government information to crowd-sourced data from mobile phones and social media, and all in real-time.
That would make your life easier, and more importantly would save countless other lives that may otherwise be lost or severely blighted.
This, in essence, is what we’re working towards.
This article was originally published at The Conversation. Read the original article.
Mining companies are underprepared for climate change
Posted: April 30, 2013 Filed under: Feature Articles | Tags: Australia, climate change, environment, government, mining Leave a comment »By Barton Loechel, Social Scientist, Science into Society Group.
Recent research suggests only a minority of mining companies are preparing for the biophysical impacts of climate change. Those that are preparing are going it alone: there is little collaboration on planning between miners and local government.
The preparedness of Australia’s resource communities for climate change will depend on adaptation planning across multiple sectors. For example, a range of climate change effects – drought, and conflict over water use, heatwaves and intense rainfall – will adversely affect mining operations as well as other industry sectors, communities and the surrounding environment.
Climate change in Australia is projected to lead to more frequent and severe droughts, floods and heat waves; increased cyclone intensity; and sea-level rise and ocean acidification, albeit with significant regional variations over different time frames.
Droughts cause competition between water users in rural areas – notably miners, farmers and rural townships. Intense rainfall events, such as those experienced in the Bowen Basin coal mining region of Queensland, led to extensive flooding of mine pits, damage to transportation routes, on-going disruption to production and export of coal, reduced state royalties, and community outrage over the effects on downstream water quality caused when pit water was released into streams.
Heat waves can reduce the liveability of mining communities and pose occupational health and safety risks for mine operational staff. Sea-level rise and ocean chemistry changes have implications for the integrity of port infrastructure and offshore platforms, while greater storm surge heights may affect mining-related infrastructure in low-lying coastal areas.
These various biophysical climate change impacts will not be simple, one-way relationships. They may include cascading effects between sectors and issues at multiple levels, such as the increased energy needs for emptying flooded pits or cleaning contaminated water.
CSIRO has been working with two groups that are central to these issues, mining companies and local government authorities with a focus on what they are doing to prepare for climate change.
The relationship between mining companies and local governments is increasingly important for climate change planning. Climate change is likely to affect not just mine operations and the landscapes in which they are located, but also the well-being of mining communities. But collaboration between mining companies and local government appears to be missing; it could well be central if mutually beneficial adaptation strategies are to be developed in the future, and actions designed to reduce climatic impacts do not have adverse impacts elsewhere.
We have conducted national surveys (just published), interviews with regional stakeholders, and workshops in three of Australia’s major mining regions over the last three years. Ongoing work includes case-studies of particular mining operations, regions and value chains to identify approaches to climate adaptation assessment most suitable for the resources sector.
Overall, this work shows that while there are many potential impacts from climate change for mining operations and their associated communities, there appears to be relatively little activity assessing and reducing these risks. We found only 13% of mining companies have undertaken a climate vulnerability study or have any adaptation policies, plans or practices in place. The main reasons companies hadn’t done this work were uncertainty around climate change impacts and political and regulatory settings. Only 39% of mining companies were convinced that the climate is changing (compared to 65% of local government respondents).
Local government concerns about and preparation for climate change were much higher although, even then, adaptation planning is occurring in less than half the councils surveyed. Councils said the main reasons they hadn’t undertaken adaptation planning were financial cost and lack of funding, lack of skilled personnel and inadequate information available for them to respond. They were less concerned than mining companies about uncertainty of impacts and political settings.
The level of collaborative planning between the two groups was poor. None of the local government respondents who reported adaptation planning said they had involved a mining company in this planning. Only two of the mining companies that undertook adaptation planning reported partnering with local government. A follow-up survey is currently underway to collect a larger sample of companies and local government authorities for this work.
This article was originally published at The Conversation. Read the original article.
Two million species and counting: completing the catalogue of life
Posted: April 11, 2013 Filed under: Feature Articles | Tags: biodiversity, conversation, DNA, helicopter, insects, Kimberley, species, taxonomy Leave a comment »By Owain Edwards and Raphael Didham.

Isolated and remote, the Kimberley could be home to untold numbers of new and endemic insects. Image: Bruce Webber
We have just returned from a month collecting insects in the National Heritage-listed Kimberley region of Western Australia. Together with the Wunambal Gaambera and Dambimangari Aboriginal Corporations and University of Western Australia, our team of scientists collected something in the order of 300,000 insect specimens. Using helicopters to reach remote areas we visited 36 sites throughout a 21,000 square kilometre region. The goal: to find out how many insects there are in the Kimberley, and identify them.
Trawling through 300,000 specimens by hand may seem like a massive task, but it is dwarfed by that facing insect taxonomists around the world. Taxonomists have successfully identified around 2 million species on Earth. There are estimated to be around 8.7 million species in total. Most of those are insects.
Fortunately there are new methods that are allowing scientists to quickly identify large numbers of species over large geographic areas, and prioritise those most important for conservation.
Old school taxonomy
The established way to catalogue an undescribed species is through the science of taxonomy. In the case of insects, this would involve an entomologist collecting and closely studying an inspect specimen in order to accurately determine where it belongs.
Taxonomy is an indexing system. Without it there would be no way of attributing a particular ecological process to a particular organism. There would be no way to compare the results of ecological studies or build knowledge about how ecosystems function. Ecologists benefit greatly from taxonomic identification of species and the life history and distribution information that is linked to it.
The problem is that describing the remaining millions of unknown insect species using traditional taxonomy would take many, many lifetimes. Modern sampling techniques can yield numbers of insect specimens that vastly exceed our capacity to identify them. And at a time when the number of taxonomists is sadly in decline and the competition for research dollars is increasingly fierce, the prospects of identifying all of them are grim.
Taxonomy goes high tech
A new approach might offer renewed hope. Genomics and phenomics look set to revolutionise the way we conduct biodiversity surveys and discover new species. These technologies offer us the opportunity to mass-screen very large samples of insects collected over a broad geographical area.
The Kimberley is the perfect testing ground for these new technologies. The rainforest vine thickets of the region are remote and hard to access. They are also isolated from each other, so the species that live there are likely to be endemic. Furthermore the wet season of the Kimberley is the main growing season and large insect surveys have never been made during this period. These factors combine to make the Kimberley’s insect species some of the least known on the planet.
Now that we’ve collected 300,000 insects we should be able to screen the samples in a matter of months, instead of the decades it would take using traditional approaches.
The way we do this is to take half the samples we have collected from the sites we surveyed and sequence DNA from the specimens in those samples. We will then screen those DNA sequences for interesting ecological patterns, such as possible endemism. It is these unique sequences, and the species they belong to, that we are most interested in.
This process does not negate the need for taxonomy. In fact, the other half of the samples we collected have been preserved for analysis using standard taxonomic methods based on morphology. The ecogenomics aspect should be seen as a “genomic triage” process that allows us to very quickly assess a broad coverage of species and zoom in on the ones of most interest—such as a species that occurs in only one Kimberley rainforest thicket. Once we know that a unique species exists there, traditional taxonomic methods are used to find out more information about it.
Seeking the grail
The Holy Grail for biodiversity researchers would surely be a comprehensive catalogue of all life on Earth.
Having taxonomic, phylogenetic, life history and ecological distribution data for every living thing at our fingertips is a tantalising prospect, and one which would make conservation much more targeted and efficient. It would be an enormous global achievement with huge implications for human livelihoods – the importance of preserving the world’s biodiversity has been eloquently stated by our colleagues.
Our success or failure in compiling such an encyclopedia of life will ultimately hinge on our ability to survey and identify the millions of species that remain undescribed. Confirming the existence and distribution of unique and rare species is the first step towards ensuring their ongoing survival.
We think our survey of the Kimberley could uncover hundreds of species previously unknown to science. If this project is a success it could bring us closer to that catalogue of life than we ever thought possible in our lifetime.
This article was originally published at The Conversation.
Read the original article.
Seasonal climate forecasts: reading tea-leaves in a digital age
Posted: March 26, 2013 Filed under: Feature Articles | Tags: atmospheric, forecasts, marine, weather, weather forecasting Leave a comment »
It’s getting trickier to forecast future weather, but new models are helping. Image: Jay Wood
By Peter McIntosh, Principal Research Scientist, Marine and Atmospheric Research.
Tea-leaves, entrails, cockatoos: we all want to forecast the future. Weather forecasts have become so commonplace we rarely think about the technology, research, computing power and millions of observations behind those couple of words: “mostly sunny”.
It’s not just the family BBQ that is at stake here. Farmers make decisions about planting, fertilising and harvesting worth many hundreds of thousands of dollars based on weather forecasts. Emergency services rally resources on high flood or fire risk days. Energy companies crank up the power if the forecast is hot or cold.
But that’s not enough. They all need to see further into the future than a weather forecast allows, and that’s where a seasonal climate forecast comes in.
Lewis Fry Richardson came up with the idea of numerical weather forecasting in 1922. Back then, his computers were real people in a large room scribbling parts of the calculation on notepads and passing them to messengers and an overall coordinator. A weather forecast starts with Newton’s laws of motion as they apply to gases (the atmosphere) and throws in some basic thermodynamics and the “ideal gas” law. These days, digital computers synthesise millions of observations with Richardson’s mathematical equations on a fine grid covering the entire planet to produce 10-day weather forecasts before morning tea.
But are they any good? In short, yes, and improving all the time. The skill of a seven-day forecast today is equal to the skill of a three-day weather forecast 30 years ago. Put that down to faster computers, more observations, and better techniques for using the observations to start the forecast.
However, beyond ten days, there is a problem. The ability to forecast individual weather systems rapidly decreases due to chaos. What this means is that very small errors in the starting conditions for the model (a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil) can amplify over time and cause large errors. That’s where the ocean comes in.
Water has a much higher heat capacity than air, so the ocean changes its temperature slowly relative to the overlying atmosphere. Once a large patch of ocean becomes warm, it stays warm for many months, influencing weather systems all the while.
A recent example is the 2010-2011 La Niña, where warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures north of Australia contributed to increased rainfall, particularly in Queensland. More generally, ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific and Indian oceans can be linked to rainfall in different parts of the country. The link is made by analysing data going back to 1950 to determine how ocean temperature changes affect rainfall for the following season. This has been the basis of statistical seasonal forecast models such as the Bureau of Meteorology’s Seasonal Climate Outlook.
However, there is an emerging problem. The observations make it clear that the climate is changing and the oceans are warming. The Indian Ocean has warmed by more than half a degree since 1970, and it’s likely that this is affecting its relationship with Australian rainfall.
The past is becoming less of a guide to the future. Statistical models based on these past relationships are gradually losing accuracy and need to be replaced.
The ingredients for a better seasonal forecast are simple: take one weather model, add global models of the ocean, land-surface and sea-ice, add a healthy dash of observations to start it all off and blend at high speed in a supercomputer.
The weather model cannot accurately predict individual weather systems beyond about ten days, but the ocean model ensures that the average behaviour of the individual weather systems is about right for many months into the future. These individual weather systems in turn change the slow-to-respond ocean in a realistic way. The result is a useful forecast of average temperature, rainfall and winds for the next few seasons.
These so-called “coupled ocean-atmosphere global models” are the future of seasonal forecasting. They do not depend on a long history of observations, but instead start from present-day conditions and use physics to divine the future.
As the climate changes, these models adapt because they start from recent observations. Even without the effect of climate change, global coupled models now outperform their simpler statistical counterparts. The seasonal climate outlook has entered the digital age.
Seasonal climate forecasts will never be perfect; there are just too many butterflies out there. But they don’t have to be perfect. In the same way that you can make money betting on dice that you know are loaded, a seasonal forecast can shift the odds in a farmer’s favour. The new breed of seasonal climate forecast will give farmers and others who depend on seasonal climate outlooks the best chance to cope with an uncertain future. And maybe some time to simply sit back and enjoy that cuppa.
Peter McIntosh receives funding from the Australian Government and the Managing Climate Variability Program of the Grains Research and Development Corporation.
This article was originally published at The Conversation.
Read the original article.
The search for lost Apollo 11 tapes
Posted: March 20, 2013 Filed under: Feature Articles | Tags: Apollo 11, Astronomy, moon, moon landing, NASA, Neil Armstrong, science, space, The Dish 2 Comments »By John Sarkissian
About the author
John is an Operations Scientist at the CSIRO Parkes Radio Observatory. His main responsibilities are operations and systems development, and the support of visiting astronomers with their observations. John is a member of the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array team that is endeavouring to use precision pulsar timing to make the first direct detection of gravitational waves. In 1998–99 he acted as a technical advisor for the film The Dish. John has received two NASA Group Achievement Awards and, in 2010, received an official NASA commendation for his search for the missing Apollo 11 tapes.
UPDATE: They have found the engines. How hard can it be to find some video tapes!
It was one giant leap for mankind and it was taken at 12:56 PM (AEST) on 21 July 1969. Six hundred million people, one sixth of mankind at the time, witnessed the Apollo 11 moonwalk live on television.
As a six-year-old school boy, I was one of those millions. Sitting cross-legged on the floor of the school assembly room with my fellow first graders, we watched the events unfold on a small black and white television screen perched at the front of the assembly room. We were spellbound by the dark, fuzzy images flickering on the screen. How did they do it? How did those pictures get from the Moon to my Sydney school? Why were the pictures so dark and ghostly looking?
Little did I know then, but three decades later I would find myself working at the CSIRO Parkes Observatory, at the very place those images were received and that I would have the opportunity to answer those childhood questions. This article is a personal account of my research into the Parkes support of Apollo 11 and how it eventually morphed into a search for the missing Apollo 11 tapes. It’s been a roller-coaster ride, with many highs and lows plus a few twists and turns to make it interesting. Along the way, I’ve met many fine and dedicated people, some of whom are now close friends. This is our story.
Some background
At 12:54 PM (AEST) Buzz Aldrin switched on the lunar module camera that would transmit the TV pictures of Armstrong descending the lunar module ladder. Three tracking stations received the signals simultaneously. They were the 64-metre Goldstone antenna in California, the 26-metre antenna at Honeysuckle Creek near Canberra and the CSIRO 64-metre dish at Parkes. The signals were relayed to Houston, where a controller selected what he thought were the best pictures for release to the US television networks and distribution to a worldwide audience.
In the first few minutes of the broadcast, Houston alternated between its two stations at Goldstone and Honeysuckle Creek, searching for the best quality pictures. When they finally switched to Parkes, the pictures were so much better that they stayed with Parkes for the remainder of the 2½ hour moonwalk. From an analysis of the videotapes of the Extra Vehicular Activity (EVA) and of a recording of the NASA NET 2 communications loop (which controlled the TV reception), the timings for the TV switches are shown below.
Time (mm:ss) Video Transmission
00:00 TV on (upside down) Picture is from Goldstone (GDS). Time is 02:54:00 (GMT)
00:27 Picture is inverted and is now the right way up. Very dark, high contrast image
01:39 Houston TV switches to Honeysuckle Creek (HSK)
02:20 Armstrong steps onto the Moon. The time is 02:56:20 (GMT)
04:42 Houston TV switches back to GDS. Picture is negative
05:36 Houston TV switches back to HSK
06:49 Houston TV switched back to GDS. Picture is positive again but still dark
08:51 Houston TV switches to Parkes (PKS). Remains with Parkes for the remainder of the 2½ hour lunar EVA
From these timings, and other evidence, it is clear that at the start of the EVA, Goldstone was experiencing problems with its TV, resulting in high contrast, dark images. The Honeysuckle Creek pictures were better but they suffered from a lower signal- to-noise ratio, thus resulting in grainier images. The pictures from Parkes were the best of the three and it was these that NASA broadcast for the majority of the lunar EVA.
Television from the Moon
The Apollo Lunar Surface Camera was developed by Westinghouse and was a technological marvel of its time. The lunar module was power and bandwidth limited, so it was not possible to transmit commercial standard TV directly from the Moon. Instead, a slow-scan TV (SSTV) system was used that required less power and bandwidth. The SSTV system transmitted b/w pictures at 10 frames-per-second with only 320 lines-per-frame. In order to broadcast this to the watching world, it had to be scan-converted on Earth to commercial TV standards. An RCA scan-converter was used that operated on an optical conversion principle. It was a simple system that worked well on previous Apollo missions. Essentially, as each single SSTV frame was received on Earth, it was displayed on a small 10-inch b/w slowscan monitor. A Vidicon camera was pointed at the screen and imaged the frame at the standard commercial TV frame rate. It was the output of this camera that was broadcast to the world. In this way, a 30 frames-per-second, 525 lines-per-frame, TV picture was achieved. As you can imagine, it’s not an ideal method of scan-converting the pictures but it seemed adequate at the time.

Chief of the CSIRO Radiophysics Division, Dr Edward ‘Taffy’ Bowen (right), with Dr John Shimmins, deputy director of Parkes Observatory, in the control room watching the moonwalk (21 July 1969).
The Goldstone TV was scan-converted on site and relayed directly to Houston via microwave relays and landline. The Honeysuckle Creek TV was scan-converted on site also, and relayed to the Overseas Telecommunications Commission (OTC) Paddington terminal in Sydney, referred to as ‘Sydney Video’. Meanwhile, the Parkes baseband signals were relayed to Sydney Video, where the TV was separated from the telemetry stream and scan-converted there.
At Sydney Video, a NASA controller would select the best of the Honeysuckle Creek or Parkes pictures, and pass that selection on to Houston. His selection would simultaneously be recorded on to 2-inch videotape on an Ampex VR660 recorder. The selected TV would be sent via microwave relays to the Moree Earth Station in northern NSW, then via the Intelsat III geostationary satellite to the United States and then finally along the AT&T landlines to Houston. At Houston, the controller would select the best of the Goldstone or Australian feeds for worldwide distribution. In a further twist, the Australian selection at Paddington was split and sent to the ABC Gore Hill studios for distribution to Australian networks. Consequently, the Australian TV did not have to travel via satellite to the US and back again. This meant that a transmission delay was not present, so Australian audiences watched the moonwalk 300 milliseconds before the rest of the world!
It is clear that scan-converting the SSTV and relaying it to the world was not an ideal situation. Firstly, the picture being displayed on the scan-converter monitor had to be adjusted manually. This was a subjective exercise, as the scan-converter operator had to adjust the brightness and contrast settings to what he thought produced the best looking picture. Unfortunately, the operator at Goldstone was inexperienced, and with the pressure of the moment, he got it wrong. At Sydney Video, the operator, Elmer Fredd, was vastly more experienced. He had helped design the scan-converter and knew it well. In December 1968, he had converted the TV pictures from Apollo 8 at Goldstone. It was no accident therefore, that the Parkes pictures looked the best. In addition, the slow-scan monitors in the scan-converters used high persistence phosphor screens so that the pictures could persist long enough for the Vidicon camera to image them. Unfortunately, a side effect of this was that the images, especially of bright, moving objects (like astronauts), persisted between frames, resulting in the ghosting of the images. Another problem was that the scan-conversion process, introduced additional signal noise and a lower resolution picture.
To make matters worse, relaying the signals via microwave relays, landlines and geostationary satellite added even more signal noise and transmission errors. The result of all these systematic problems was that the TV that the world saw was severely degraded and compromised. We could do much better today. As the video and telemetry downlink was being received at the stations, it was recorded onto 1-inch magnetic data tapes at a rate of 120 inches-per-second. These tapes had to be changed every 15 minutes for the entire duration of the moonwalk. Clearly, if we could find these tapes, we could replay them and recover the original SSTV pictures. With modern image processing techniques, we could enhance them even further and release them to the public.

“The Dish”
The tape search begins
Soon after arriving at Parkes in 1996, I learned of a minor controversy about the exact time that the first TV from the Moon was received at Parkes. The Director of the Parkes Observatory at the time, John Bolton, had always insisted that he had received the TV signal from the very beginning when the camera was switched on at 12:54 PM (AEST).
The Moon was not scheduled to come into view at Parkes until 1:02 PM – a full eight minutes later, so there was some doubt. However, I soon learnt that there were two feeds installed in the focus cabin on the day. Realising that the moonwalk was imminent, Bolton was able to receive the signals with the less sensitive off-axis receiver. He carefully aligned the off-axis beam on the Moon and was able to track it until it reached the telescope’s 30-degree elevation horizon at 1:02 PM, after which he could track it normally with the main beam. My calculations showed that this was indeed possible, but I wanted to know for certain. Also, the signal being received by the off-axis feed would have been unstable and probably of a much lower quality, so I wanted to know by how much. I thought that if I could find the original data tapes that contained the signals recorded at Parkes, I could replay them and confirm my conclusions. At this time also, there was still some doubt about the sequence of switches in the broadcast of the TV, so by finding the tapes from the other stations, I could compare their picture quality with the existing video recordings and determine the sequence for certain. A bonus was that we could also recover the original SSTV, which I knew by then was of a much higher quality.
Beginning in the late 1990s I contacted various NASA centres requesting the whereabouts of the data tape recordings. I made countless phone calls, wrote emails and letters to whomever I thought might know where the tapes were located. But, it was all to no avail. No one seemed to know where the tapes were. In fact, many had trouble understanding what exactly I was after. I was convinced that the tapes must still exist somewhere, but where? In 2001 I obtained a Polaroid picture taken directly off a slow-scan monitor at Sydney Video. When compared to the existing scan-converted video image of the same scene, it clearly showed how much better the original SSTV was to the scan-converted videos. So, I persisted.
Also in 2001, the film The Dish premiered in the US and this prompted several past and present NASA personnel to contact me. Three in particular became good friends and search team members. Stan Lebar was the retired Westinghouse engineer who, in 1969, was the program manager for the Apollo Lunar Surface Camera. Dick Nafzger was the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) engineer responsible for all ground systems hardware in support of Apollo TV in 1969, and was still with NASA. Bill Wood was a retired communications engineer who was based at Goldstone in 1969. The search team was completed when, in 2002, I was contacted by Colin Mackellar, who is an amateur historian and the webmaster of the Honeysuckle Creek website. He is a trained geologist and an Anglican minister in Sydney. Together, we joined forces to search for, and recover, the SSTV recordings.
A breakthrough occurred in 2002 when a former technician from Honeysuckle Creek contacted his former colleagues and Colin Mackellar. He admitted that, in 1969, he had made an unauthorised copy of a data tape that he believed contained telemetry from the Apollo 11 lunar EVA. This caused great excitement. The tape had been stored in his garage for 33 years in less than ideal conditions. If it still contained data, the possibility existed that the SSTV could be recovered from it.
Former Honeysuckle Creek personnel, Mike Dinn and John Saxon organised to have the tape transported to the Data Evaluation Lab (DEL) at the GSFC by the NASA representative in Australia, Neal Newman. The DEL contained the only machines in the world that could play and decode the Apollo data tapes. At the DEL, Dick Nafzger replayed the tape with his team. Unfortunately, they discovered that the tape only contained data from a 1967 simulation. The technician had copied the wrong tape. As heartbreaking as this was, it had a positive effect. People suddenly understood what we were after and why we were looking for it. We confirmed that the equipment to replay the data tapes still existed and, most importantly, that even after 34 years the tapes could still retain data.
In 2005, spurred on by this and by new Polaroids from Honeysuckle Creek, Stan and Dick visited the US National Archives in Washington, where all the data tapes from the Apollo era were deposited in the early 1970s – all 250,000 plus tapes. Unfortunately, their search only uncovered a single box of tapes containing Apollo 9 telemetry. The label on the box had details that allowed us to continue the search. Soon after this discovery, we received the alarming news that the DEL was slated for closure in 2006. This would be a disaster because, without the DEL, there would be no way to replay the tapes, and recover the SSTV, if they were ever found. Something had to be done.
The formal search
In February 2006 I visited the DEL and also gave a series of talks at various NASA centres to explain our search. On my return, I compiled a report which slowly began to stir people’s attention. Two months later in July, Stan and Dick were interviewed on national radio on the anniversary of the Apollo 11 mission.
Finally in early August, The Sydney Morning Herald posted a front-page story with the provocative headline ‘One giant blunder for mankind: how NASA lost moon pictures’. This caused a major stir with the story going viral on the internet and news reports appearing on the American TV networks and other news organisations worldwide. Interest became so intense that in August 2006 the NASA Administrator, Michael Griffin, formalised the search and appointed the GSFC deputy director, Dorothy Perkins, to head the search. Dick was the technical lead. The first decision made was to not close the DEL.
With the full resources of NASA brought to bear on our search, we were confident that we would now finally locate the tapes and release the SSTV to the public by Christmas. But it was not to be. Soon after the formal search began, documents were found that suggested that the tapes may have been erased in the early 1980s. This was disturbing news. We were searching for just 45 tapes from over 250,000 tapes of the Apollo era. Surely, these few would have been put aside for historical reasons. Meanwhile, Colin and I followed up leads from the Australian end and provided advice. In the US, our colleagues Stan, Dick and Bill became first-class sleuths. They tracked down long retired personnel and uncovered dusty documents from NASA archives, people’s attics and basements.
Slowly and surely, the evidence mounted. We discovered that in the late 1970s and early 1980s NASA had withdrawn all the Apollo era data tapes from the National Archives and erased and recertified them for later use. But why? Apparently, these tapes were manufactured using whale oil to adhere the oxide to the backing. However, in the mid-1970s, the use of whale oil was banned and manufacturers switched to using synthetic oils. The drawback was that if the synthetic oil-based tapes were not stored correctly, they would absorb moisture from the air which made them sticky. Played back at high speed, they would stick to the recording heads and be shredded to pieces. The older Apollo era tapes didn’t suffer from this drawback.
As NASA’s budget was cut back severely in the late 1970s, the need for more tapes to record the increasing volume of data from satellite programs became acute. The enormous number of tapes in the National Archives was now seen as valuable assets. Over a period of several years, they were all removed, erased and recertified. The labels on the tape canisters were cryptic and there was little way of knowing what each of the tapes contained. Our team didn’t find any evidence that the tapes containing the Apollo 11 lunar EVA data were treated differently to the others. We reluctantly concluded that the tapes were, in all likelihood, erased and reused with the rest.
You can imagine how we felt. To understand why the tapes were treated this way, it’s important to realise that they were never intended to be the primary archival media. In fact, there was never any expectation that the magnetic data would survive more than a few decades. They were only meant to act as backups for the real-time communications relays and other data. If there was a failure during a mission, the tapes could be used to recover the information. If however, all went well, then the tapes were no longer necessary. All the vital information was extracted in real-time and archived for analysis at the relevant NASA centres. The TV was successfully seen by the world and the scan-converted video was properly recorded onto archival b/w film that would last for centuries. Few people outside of the tracking stations were even aware of the SSTV or how much better it was. As far as everyone was concerned, all the data was believed to be properly archived – at least until we came along.
The NASA report HERE
The restoration
What to do next? In late 2006 Colin noticed a video clip on Eric Jones’ Apollo Lunar Surface Journal website. It showed Armstrong descending the lunar module ladder that was much clearer than anything we’d seen before. We learnt that the clip was sourced from someone who had previously worked at the GSFC. It appears that he found an old 2-inch videotape of the lunar EVA and made a crude VHS video copy of it. We obtained a copy of this videotape and found that it was most likely a copy of the video recording made at Sydney Video of the Australian selection.
It contained the clearest pictures of Armstrong descending the ladder sourced from Honeysuckle. It also showed the switch to Parkes earlier than in any other known recording. Unfortunately, when the original copy was made, the Ampex recorder was not setup properly and this produced a jittery image with many defects. We spent the next few months searching for the original 2-inch tape, but it has mysteriously gone missing. Early in the search Colin was contacted by Ed von Renouard, the former scan-converter operator from Honeysuckle. On the day of the lunar EVA, Ed had brought his home movie camera to work and recorded footage directly off the screens of his console. One of those scenes was the dumping of the astronauts’ portable life support systems, or backpacks. This occurred several hours after the astronauts had re-entered the lunar module and the TV networks had by then ended their broadcasts. Consequently, as far as we could determine, no other footage existed of the dumping. During the search, we came across many archived copies of the scan-converted TV. We decided to switch our search to finding the best of these scan-converted videos and have them archived properly. We also decided to digitise them along with the Sydney Video and Honeysuckle footage. We would take the best parts of each and compile and restore them into a single video of the lunar EVA.
In 2008 we had a demo restoration produced of selected scenes, which we used to convince NASA to underwrite the $245,000 cost of the full restoration. A week later, Neil Armstrong visited Sydney to address the CPA Australia 125th anniversary celebrations. During his address, Neil Armstrong paid a glowing tribute to the many Australians who worked at the tracking stations and helped to ensure the success of the Apollo 11 mission. Some were present in the audience and were individually acknowledged by him. In a brief ceremony following the event, Armstrong symbolically handed over the Australian disks to Dr Phil Diamond, the then-Director of CSIRO Astronomy and Space Science (CASS) – the custodian of the disks in Australia. He noted that ‘”the restored video is a valuable contribution to space exploration and space communication history”.
This ceremony effectively brought the restoration effort to a close. The Australian disks will eventually be deposited in permanent archival storage, most likely with the National Film and Sound Archive in Canberra. The restored Apollo 11 video can now be purchased online from www.apollo11video.com
The proceeds will go toward the continued search and restoration of the other Apollo mission videos.
Hope remains
In early September 2006, soon after we first received news that the tapes may have been erased, I received a phone call from Peter Robertson, the editor of Australian Physics magazine. He had seen the news items regarding the missing Apollo 11 tapes. He phoned to tell me of a letter he had received from John Bolton in the early 1990s. Bolton had mentioned some videotape players that were in the Parkes control room during the Apollo 11 mission. I informed Peter, that we weren’t looking for videotapes but rather magnetic data tapes containing telemetry of the mission. I asked him to send me a copy of the letter anyway.
For many years, I had photographs from the CASS Photo Archive of scenes taken inside the Parkes control room during Apollo 11. Several photos showed a man standing beside Ampex VR660 2-inch videotape players. The Ampex players could only record standard television pictures, so I had no idea what they were doing at Parkes. I also didn’t know who the man standing beside them was, or what he was doing there.
A few days after Peter phoned, the Bolton letter arrived and I was stunned. The letter did indeed describe the Ampex video recorders and, more importantly, Bolton mentioned that they came with their own engineer from Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. Could this engineer be the mystery man? I knew that Johns Hopkins was the home of the Applied Physics Laboratory (APL), a regular NASA contractor.
In late November 2006, we received definitive evidence that the tapes had been erased. It was then that I sent the information on the possible identity of the engineer to my US colleagues. They immediately set out to find him. Within a few weeks, they found old newsletters from APL that positively identified him. He was contacted and interviewed by Bill and Stan. What he told them lifted our spirits. According to the engineer, in April 1969, the APL was contracted by the GSFC to modify existing Ampex VR660 video recorders to record the non-standard SSTV at Parkes. He was put in charge of this crash program. It was to be an experimental backup recording in case the TV could not be relayed to Houston. This secondary recording was only made at Parkes and if it worked, it could be used on future missions. He reported that the recording succeeded and that he returned to the US with two reels of 2-inch videotape containing the SSTV.
The whereabouts of this videotape was now a mystery. An extensive search was conducted at APL that turned up two tapes that seemed to match the description. Dick organised the loan of an Ampex VR660 video player and a slow-scan monitor from two museums. His team played back the tapes at DEL and found that they were all blank. Again, we were disappointed. Importantly, there was no documentation to suggest the tapes were erased or destroyed. We are working on the assumption that they still exist somewhere, so our search for them continues.
The most striking thing for me was how, just as we were at our lowest ebb, John Bolton appeared, from beyond the grave, to direct us in our search. It was like he was saying, “Hey, look over there. That’s where you’ll find what you’re looking for.” Hope remains.
Links:
More information on the Parkes Apollo 11 support and the search for the tapes can be found here:
http://www.parkes.atnf.csiro.au/news_events/apollo11/
http://www.parkes.atnf.csiro.au/news_events/apollo11/apollo11_sstv_search_report.html
This is the official NASA search report release in 2009:
http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/398311main_Apollo_11_Report.pdf
This is the page setup in 2009 to publicise the Parkes Apollo 11 40th Anniversary:
http://www.csiro.au/science/Apollo-11-and-Parkes-telescope
This is the site for purchasing the Apollo 11 restored video DVD:
http://www.apollo11video.com/
Acknowledgments
I wish to express my gratitude to Professor Marcus Price, officer-in-charge of the Parkes Observatory in 1997, for asking me to research the Observatory’s support of the Apollo 11 mission, and to Dr John Reynolds, officer-in-charge from 1999–2008, for his continued support throughout. I also thank Marshall Cloyd for giving me the opportunity to search for the tapes a little closer to the source in the United States. Finally, to my friends Bill, Dick, Colin and Stan – thank you.
Octopus, spaceship, or virus?
Posted: March 14, 2013 Filed under: Feature Articles, Random Stuff | Tags: biosecurity, CSIRO, hendra, innovation, science, virus Leave a comment »By Jayden Malseed
They say a picture’s worth a thousand words, but we’re hoping these brightly coloured images can tell an even bigger story.
At first glance you may think the image below is part of an octopus tentacle, or maybe the underside of an alien spaceship from the 1996 movie Independence Day, or perhaps even something else entirely.
It’s actually a section from a ferret’s kidney that is infected with Hendra virus, and has been taken with a confocal microscope.
Now this isn’t just your ordinary microscope. Costing roughly $750 000, the microscope is designed to focus on fluorescent colours that have been ‘tagged’ to specific components, which then show up on a big computer screen, giving us these incredible pictures.
The green highlights are the cells that have been infected by Hendra, while the blue highlights are the cell nuclei. To create this picture an antibody is dyed fluorescent green, which then attaches to the viral proteins, effectively colouring it green.
The vital research, led by microscopist Dr Paul Monaghan, uses these images to study the cell biology of Hendra virus. The confocal microscope, which is located within the high containment facility at our Australian Animal Health Laboratory in Geelong Victoria, helps Paul and his team better understand the virus, and to be able to answer questions such as why it attacks certain cells, and what it does when it gets to a cell.
“We’re developing a deeper understanding of the virus by using the microscope and the images, and if we can pinpoint a specific stage in the virus lifecycle and say to ourselves ‘this is the point we need to stop it’ then that would be enormous”, Paul explained.

This is a confocal image of tissue culture taken 18 hours after inoculation with Hendra virus, and is about 100nm wide
The two images to the right are slightly different from the first. Where the first was a section from a kidney, these are taken from cells growing in tissue culture. We have also labeled two virus proteins: one red and one green.
They demonstrate how the Hendra virus has infected the cells, and after 14 hours has fused those cells together to form what is called a syncytium. The green/blue round circles are the nuclei – normally one in each cell – but the rest of the cell is relatively unaffected.
After 24 hours, the infection has progressed and newly made virus proteins are gathering at the edge of the cell (next to the black areas) to form new viruses. The red and green proteins are now together and can be seen as an irregular orange line at the edge of the cell.
These images allow Paul and his team to study the virus at different stages of its lifecycle, and and will be incredibly helpful for future research with Hendra virus and other related viruses that threaten the biosecurity of our animals, people and environment.
This research is part of our wider program of work on bats and the viruses they carry.
Australian endangered species: Retro Slider
Posted: March 12, 2013 Filed under: Feature Articles | Tags: biodiversity, ecoysystems, endangered species Leave a comment »
The Retro Slider – the best-named reptile in Australia?
By Eric Vanderduys, Terrestrial Field Biologist
When asked to name an Australian lizard, most Australians would probably pick the familiar blue-tongue, stumpy lizard or bearded dragon, or perhaps the iconic thorny devil, frill-neck lizard or a goanna. Poorly known to most Australians is the lizard group known as skinks – which includes the blue-tongue and stumpy lizard – but which consists of hundreds of species, in a diverse range of sizes and shapes.
Lerista is a genus of skinks commonly known as “sliders”. It contains over 90 species of mostly small, burrowing skinks with reduced limbs – limbs that are short, often with fewer than five fingers or toes, or are missing altogether. The Retro slider (Lerista allanae), has tiny back legs and no front legs. It grows to about 15 cm, nearly half of this being tail. It is grey to silver or pale brown, and each scale has a dark spot or streak on it. It is named after Retro Station, a grazing property where it was originally collected.
Status
Sliders have restricted distributions – sometimes just a few square kilometres. Usually sliders inhabit loose leaf litter and sandy soils, and not heavy, clay soils prone to floods. Those areas are often separated by unsuitable habitat, leading to tiny distributions.
The Retro Slider is one such species, inhabiting slight rises in a landscape of fertile, deeply cracking clay soils near Clermont in central Queensland’s Brigalow Belt. They are known from four locations over a 40 km range, and the area they occupy is unknown, but possibly as small as a few square kilometres. The main stronghold is Retro Station, a lightly grazed property with, importantly, patches of trees with deep, undisturbed leaf litter. Retro sliders also occur along road verges.
Originally known from two or three locations the Retro slider was missing for 49 years until rediscovered near one of the original sites in 2009. It is listed as endangered on a state and national level, and critically endangered under the IUCN.
Threats
It’s important to consider the past to help understand the Retro slider’s predicament.
The area was heavily grazed by sheep before cattle rose to prominence. The use of agricultural chemicals, including insecticides has been widespread at times and this may have had consequences for termites and small invertebrates, which the Retro slider eats.
The effects of widespread drought and flooding are unknown but likely to be detrimental to Retro sliders. Drought because it reduces ground cover and therefore may increase exposure to predators and extreme temperatures; and floods because they may force skinks to the soil surface, again exposing them to danger.
Fire may impact on Retro sliders by burning leaf litter, habitat for their prey and also exposing the sliders to the dangers mentioned above.

Image: Flickr / gm_pentaxfan
Exotic grasses, especially buffel grass, can come to dominate the habitat where Retro sliders live. The effects of buffel invasion are not known, but Retro sliders have not been found under buffel clumps, despite extensive searching. Like gamba grass in northern Australia, a worrying aspect of buffel is that it favours burning, which can kill the small stands of trees and shrubs that Retro sliders use.
Feral animals, especially foxes and cats may impact Retro sliders. Both have been seen eating other slider species. Foxes and cats are likely to amplify other threats. Sliders exposed at road edges, or due to fire and flood, are easy prey for predators.
Strategy
There is no current formal coordinated management strategy in place for Retro sliders. The Retro slider is not known to occur within the protected estate, so management on private land and road reserves will be imperative for its long term survival.
The landholder of the property where most sliders have been found is proud to have a critically endangered species under his stewardship and is committed to helping to minimise threats.
The Commonwealth has drafted a Recovery Plan for the Brigalow Belt Reptiles that lists the Retro slider and eight other reptile species. WWF and the Queensland Murray-Darling Committee have also drafted a management plan including seven additional species from the Brigalow Belt.
Queensland Transport is cooperating with the Queensland Department of Science, Information Technology, Innovation and the Arts to protect or enhance Retro slider habitat where it occurs on road verges. Fire and buffel grass management are important components of this. Areas where the Retro slider have been found on road verges have been carefully mapped so that the impact of road management or upgrade activities are minimised.
Conclusion
Given the skink’s small size, enhancing existing habitat should not prove difficult. Establishing one or two additional habitats away from the current sites would be beneficial in guarding against localised events such as flooding or fire. A bonus would be to find one or more populations on the protected estate.
For many years the Retro slider had the dubious distinction of being Australia’s only reptile thought to be extinct. Its rediscovery and the fact that it has been found in a growing number of sites in the last three years give hope for a secure future.
The Conversation is running a series on Australian endangered species. See it here
This article was originally published at The Conversation.
Read the original article.
Stuck in a loop: understanding feedback to plan for the future
Posted: March 10, 2013 Filed under: Feature Articles | Tags: 2050, feedback loop, future projections, futures, sustainability Leave a comment »
We’re stuck in feedback loops that mean things are going to change; we need to get ready. Image: Steve Johnson
By Nicky Grigg- Research scientist in environmental dynamics
Just as 40 years ago Australia was a very different place from the Australia of today, the Australia of 2050 will be different again. If there are aspects of Australian life that we’d like to hang on to as we face the changes ahead, we shouldn’t do it by trying to prevent or avoid change. Instead we have to build our capacities to adapt and transform in the face of change.
The changes we are making to the planet affect our lives, and will continue to affect the lives of our children and grandchildren. This is a feedback loop: we change the planet, and those changes have consequences that change us (either here and now, or elsewhere later). If we want the things that we care about to last in the face of global change, it’s helpful to understand feedback loops that accelerate or impede change. In our highly connected world, this feedback is common. We ignore it at our peril.
Some feedback loops reinforce and accelerate change. For example, once the majority of people around you have chosen to buy a mobile phone it becomes really hard for you to thrive without one, so you too buy a mobile phone. This makes it even harder for others to live without one. The net result is a rapid social change.
Some feedback loops weaken or impede change. For example, you might think that changing engine technology to increase fuel efficiency would lead to reduced demand for petroleum. But studies have pointed to “affluence” feedbacks, whereby the gains made in engine efficiency have been taken up in building higher performance vehicles and including extras such as air-conditioning. Changes that might have reduced total vehicle fuel demand have had a minimal effect on our total fuel use.
Vehicle fleet fuel usage is “resilient” to changes in engine fuel efficiency. In this way “resilience” can be desirable or undesirable, and is not an end in itself. Rather, a resilience perspective offers some useful understanding at a system level.
A set of feedback loops underlie changes in Australians’ health, driving inexorable gain in weight and the growing prevalence of obesity-related diseases such as diabetes. If we gain weight it becomes harder to exercise, so we tend to reduce activity levels, so making it harder to lose weight. Psychological impacts of weight gain include depression, anxiety, low self-esteem and guilt, which in turn are linked to eating for comfort, increased alcohol consumption and increased lethargy, all of which reinforce weight gain. Efforts to drive less and walk more are at odds with the reality that workplaces are rewarding long hours of sedentary work and our work and social interactions rely on a high level of rapid personal mobility. Together, these and other powerful influences have been referred to as an “obsogenic environment”.
Once you understand these system-level drivers you realise that well-intentioned public health messages imploring us to “do the right thing”, “eat less” and “exercise more” are relatively powerless compared to the strength of other forces at work. It is possible to assert our own choices in this environment, but it can require a level of time, effort, foregone income and persistence that is not required if we simply align ourselves with “the way things are”.
Anticipating and assessing all the potential shocks or system changes in store is not possible. We will never know about all potential tipping points of rapid change. Yet some qualities, like human health, confer desirable resilience to changes of several different kinds.
It is helpful to adopt a practical, working assumption that our well-being is not possible without a foundation built upon various forms of wealth – human, social, built, natural and knowledge capital. With this assumption, it is possible to consider some of the feedback loops that erode or build these forms of wealth, and identify governance approaches that help or hinder adaptation and transformation.
A good start is to look at what we measure and strive for. If we are limiting ourselves to seeking short-term economic efficiency at each stage in our food production chains, important environmental, social and health impacts are invisible to us. By paying attention to a richer suite of impacts and consequences, we put in place an important feedback loop: a learning loop. In a world where decisions have unanticipated consequences, learning loops help us build our options for creating environmentally sustainable and socially equitable ways (not prescribing any single way) of living.
Nicky Grigg was lead author for a group exploring resilience as part of the Australian Academy of Science project “Australia 2050: Towards an environmentally and economically sustainable and socially equitable ways of living”.
The Australia 2050 project for the Australian Academy of Science has just published Phase 1 Negotiating our future: Living scenarios for Australia to 2050 which emerged from 35 scientists working together to explore social perspectives, resilience, scenarios and modelling as pathways towards environmentally and economically sustainable and socially equitable ways of living. Phase 2 of this project on creating living scenarios for Australia is underway.
This article was originally published at The Conversation. Read the original article.
Exploring the future with models
Posted: March 9, 2013 Filed under: Feature Articles | Tags: future, future projections, modelling, sustainability Leave a comment »
All humans navigate life using models – most of us just don’t realise. Image: Niriel/Flickr
By Beth Fulton- Head of Ecosystem Modelling, Marine and Atmospheric Research
Planning for our future can be a heated topic, as the many people affected may have competing or conflicting objectives. The tension, frustration and bewilderment that can accompany such an exercise can be alleviated if discussions are based around models. We are a “hands on” species and being able to directly interact with models often elicits options and opinions that are missed if only talking “in theory” or “in principle”.
When you hear the word model what is the first image you get? While scientists have an understanding of what is meant by a model, in reality models of many forms are already embedded in day-to-day living.
All humans navigate through life using models – consciously or unconsciously. These may be intuitive mental models, or they may be more formal models, such as those embedded in government decision making (for example, treasury forecasts).
All models are simplified versions of reality that we use as learning tools when reality is too difficult to handle. Useful models reproduce the key aspects of the world we are interested in so we can ignore complicating factors without being led catastrophically astray.
Mental models – most commonly expressed as philosophies, beliefs, or worldviews – are built intuitively through time, drawing on many sources (such as parents and peers) and guide our participation in society, our decisions and actions. They are not required to be internally consistent. In contrast, scientific models use scientific understanding of real world processes (such as physical laws of mass and energy) to require internal consistency.
The complexity and interconnectedness of the modern world means that now more than ever it is important to use internally consistent models that can evolve with new understanding. Scientific models can be used to spot what is plausible and what is not and to identify futures that are both desirable and possible.
Models have many uses, the most commonly recognised one being to project into the future. The complexity of the world means we can never predict it exactly, but it is possible to get the broad brush strokes correct. We can ask questions like “what if we did not control emissions?” and models can paint an internally consistent picture of what consequences may unfold.
While a lot of effort is being put into using models to do projections – and these often draw the greatest public attention – other uses of models are equally, if not more important.
The fastest way of identifying a hole in understanding is to try and build a model. Uncertainty around a key feature or link in the model helps prioritise where future research is needed. Model-building brings together knowledge from a broad range of sources. For example, sitting with community members and discussing how the world fits together for them, or playing with simple models can lead to a wealth of information that would not be uncovered any other way.
This is particularly true when dealing with human behaviour. Governments do not manage the environment or natural resources, they manage what people do. Portraying people too simply risks missing unintended consequences. The use of models as “flight simulators” for managers – letting them check the consequences of potential decisions in models before risking the real world – has been a key function of models for resource managers.
It is important that people of all walks of life understand the implications of proposed policies, what those policies require of them and what effect their implementation will have on their world. Without such understanding it can be easy to assume people and the system will behave as expected but for reality to play out very differently.
Work has begun on models to support discussions of shared visions of potential futures that are consistent with society’s values and the biophysical reality of the planet. This will not be easy at a national scale, but if it proves as effective as it has on smaller regional scales then it has enormous potential.
Beth Fulton was lead author for a group exploring modelling perspectives as part of the Australian Academy of Science project “Australia 2050: Towards an environmentally and economically sustainable and socially equitable ways of living”.
The Australia 2050 project for the Australian Academy of Science has just published Phase 1 Negotiating our future: Living scenarios for Australia to 2050 which emerged from 35 scientists working together to explore social perspectives, resilience, scenarios and modelling as pathways towards environmentally and economically sustainable and socially equitable ways of living. Phase 2 of this project on creating living scenarios for Australia is underway.
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This article was originally published at The Conversation. Read the original article.
Where is Australia headed? Some future projections
Posted: March 6, 2013 Filed under: Feature Articles | Tags: economy, ecosystems, environment, future, industry, resources, sustainability Leave a comment »By Beth Fulton- Head of Ecosystem Modelling, Marine and Atmospheric Research
Australians want a future of sustainable self-sufficiency and a healthy environment supporting a robust democracy – free of poverty and inequity. That was one of our projections, as part of the Australia 2050 project for the Australian Academy of Science.
Equally, Australians fear a future in which the stability of day-to-day life has been eroded by a degraded environment, depleted resources, lawlessness or warfare, limited access to health-care and education, extreme (or even increased) economic or political inequity and the fragmentation of social cohesion.
The question “What will Australia in 2050 look like?” will not be answered for sure for another four decades. But that future depends on decisions made today, and that means it is important to get some early insights into what the alternatives really are.
Of course, the future is uncertain and the projections discussed here may change as the different components are finally linked together. But some of them run contrary to current expectation and desires. They require careful thought in any personal, community, regional or national planning exercises.
Population, society and the economy

Image: Flickr / NSW State Records
The human aspects of Australia’s future have received a good deal of attention over the last few years. Australia’s population will increase by 50-100% by 2050. The proportion of the population living in the north and west is projected to increase at the expense of smaller southern states.
Median age will increase from the 36.8 years of 2007 to between 41.9 and 45.2 years. The proportion of the population over 65 is projected to increase by 60%, or more in the southern states.
Economic growth is forecast to continue over 2011-2050 at around 2.5% per year (a little slower than over past decades), and to shift towards services and away from primary and secondary industries (like agriculture and manufacturing).
This is despite an expected 13% increase in trade as Australia’s trade partnerships restructure – with the proportion of Australia’s total exports going to China, India and Indonesia projected to rise from 14% to 40% by 2100.
Even this rate of productivity is dependent on increasing labour force participation, facilitated by education and health programs and increased participation by people aged over 65. Despite this rising participation it is projected that the tax base will nearly halve, meaning the fiscal burden of the ageing population would lead to an accumulating and growing fiscal gap (where spending exceeds revenue) of up to 2.75% of GDP annually, with deficits reaching 20% of GDP by 2050.
Resources and industries

Iron ore processing plant, Newcastle NSW. Image: Flickr / State Records NSW
Australia’s resource sector has been one of the defining shapers of economic growth through the late 20th and early 21st century. Major fossil fuels (black coal, natural gas) and minerals (iron ore, bauxite, copper) are forecast to be exhausted in 60-80 years at current rates of extraction, much sooner for other resources (gold, lead, zinc, crude oil). The physical trade balance (including mining, manufacturing and agricultural sectors) is forecast to show continued growth in exports to the mid 21st century, but then to collapse rapidly to around neutral.
While Australia will be food secure, agricultural trade is projected to drop by 10-80% due to a drop in output. In the absence of any climate change adaptation in agricultural practices or mitigation, by 2050 Australian wheat, sugar, beef and sheep production is projected to drop by roughly 14-20%; with production in Queensland and the Northern Territory hardest hit.
Energy consumption will increase. Electricity generation and transport sectors remain the dominant uses. Fossil fuels are likely to continue supplying the bulk of this, despite 3.4-3.5% growth per year in renewables.
The trajectory of emissions is heavily dependent on the specific adaptation behaviour, mitigation policies and technology scenarios.
Climate, the environment and ecosystems

Image: Flickr / NSW State Records
Air temperature will probably rise by less than 4°C by 2050, with the greatest warming in the northwest and away from the coasts. This has adverse consequences for heat stress on agriculture and urban systems, water availability in Southern Australia, the incidence of drought and fire.
Water yield from the Murray-Darling potentially drops by 55%, but the greatest increase in drought months (of 80%) is in the southwest. Substantial increases in the number of extremely hot days (>35°C) Australia wide are associated with increases in extreme fire days and area burnt. Northern settlements are particularly strongly impacted.
The impact of these changes on native terrestrial ecosystems becomes progressively worse as temperature rises. If temperatures increases are small (<1°C by 2050) only mountain and tropical ecosystems should be impacted; habitat for vertebrates in the northern tropics is projected to decrease by 50%.
If temperatures rise by 3°C or more the projected loss of core habitats is much more extensive: 30-70% or more of many habitat types, with the majority of rainforest birds becoming threatened and many species of flora and fauna projected to go extinct. Iconic freshwater wetlands, like Kakadu, are also projected to shrink by 80%. These changes are also associated with extensive compositional change and increased penetration of invading species.
The ocean is projected to change as much as the land, though with much more consistency across emissions scenarios. Most ocean warming is in the tropics and down the east coast. Sea-level will rise, potentially doubling the areal extent of flooding due to storm tides; ocean stratification is likely to strengthen, affecting mixing, nutrient supplies and productivity; hypoxic “dead zones” are likely to spread; and the rising levels of CO2 dissolved in the ocean will continue to cause acidity to increase.
While a range of species will adapt, future ecosystems may have very different composition to today. Differential capacity to adapt will lead to species mixes never before recorded.
Economically and ecologically sustainable marine industries are still possible despite the projected environmental changes. However, this is only possible if regulations, markets and social attitudes allow the industry to shift with the new ecosystem structures.
Beth Fulton was lead author for a group exploring modelling perspectives as part of the Australian Academy of Science project “Australia 2050: Towards an environmentally and economically sustainable and socially equitable ways of living”.
The Australia 2050 project for the Australian Academy of Science has just published Phase 1 Negotiating our future: Living scenarios for Australia to 2050 which emerged from 35 scientists working together to explore social perspectives, resilience, scenarios and modelling as pathways towards environmentally and economically sustainable and socially equitable ways of living. Phase 2 of this project on creating living scenarios for Australia is underway.
Beth Fulton receives funding from the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation.
This article was originally published at The Conversation.
Read the original article.
Four years on: Investigating the behaviour of the Kilmore East fire
Posted: March 5, 2013 Filed under: Feature Articles, News | Tags: black saturday, bushfires Leave a comment »By Dr Andrew Sullivan and Dr Miguel Gomes Da Cruz
Saturday 7 February 2009 will go down in Australia’s history as one of the worst days for bushfires since European arrival. On that day, which became known as “Black Saturday”, 173 people died in Victoria as a result of bushfires burning out of control.
The Kilmore East fire was the most significant of the fires burning on Black Saturday. During its first 12 hours, 119 people died, 1242 houses and other buildings were destroyed, and more than 100,000 ha of forest and farmland was burned. It is the single most destructive bushfire to occur in Australia.
We know this fire was bad. But without more detail about the specifics of its behaviour, there’s little we can learn from it. With bushfires expected to be more frequent, severe and longer lasting with a changing climate, it’s critical that we understand the behaviour of catastrophic bushfires to better prepare Australians for future fires.
In 2010, the Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment commissioned Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) through the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre to reconstructed the spread of the Kilmore East fire. The study aimed to identify factors which led to the severity of the fire and its impact on lives, livelihoods and ecosystems. Of particular interest were claims that the behaviour of the fire was extraordinary and unprecedented.
The results of the CSIRO research were recently published in the journal Forest Ecology and Management as Anatomy of a catastrophic wildfire: The Black Saturday Kilmore East fire in Victoria, Australia. The research reports on key fire behaviour features that caused such widespread damage.

Smoke plumes from fires burning through Tasmania and Victoria over the 2012-13 season. Image: NASA Earth Observing System Data and Information System
The 2008–09 fire season followed a number of years of significant below average rainfall and increased average daily temperatures. Exceptional heatwave conditions over south-eastern Australia (in which Melbourne experienced a record three-day run of temperatures above 43°C) peaked on 7 February 2009, when temperatures soared over 46°C.
Very dry near-gale to gale-force winds, combined with the extreme temperatures and exceedingly dry vegetation, set the scene for extreme fire behaviour.
A little before midday, a fire ignited in a heavily grazed farm paddock to the east of Kilmore. For 15 minutes, the fire spread in a southerly direction under a strong northerly wind at around 2km/h. Over the next hour and a half, the fire continued to develop, and spread south at around 4km/h through heavily grazed farm paddocks, open woodland, large bluegum and pine plantations, and denser woodland.
In the treed landscape the fire began to throw bits of burning bark (firebrands) up to a few hundred metres, igniting spot fires.
As the day warmed and winds increased the fire caused numerous longer distance spot fires ahead of the main fire front which developed and coalesced rapidly.
Around 2pm the fire spread through the town of Wandong without slowing down, due to its prolific spotting dynamics. When the fire reached the dry eucalypt forest in the foothills of the Hume Range to the west of Mount Disappointment at 3pm, it was travelling at 4km/h, a fast rate of travel for a fire in a forest. However, in the long mixed eucalypt forest the fire speed increased to 9km/h – the fastest it would get – as it approached Mount Disappointment.
The resulting very high fireline intensities, ranging between 70,000 and 88,000 kilowatts per metre (which persisted throughout most of the afternoon), created a strong convection plume. Combined with very strong winds aloft, the convection plume transported burning firebrands very long distances downwind of the main fire front, in some cases up to 40km away.
With the wind direction crossing ridges and valleys, spotfires developed rapidly and combined into high intensity crown fires in eucalypt forest. The number and extent of spot fires downwind of the main fire meant the fire became highly disjointed.
A south-westerly wind change around 6.30pm turned the approximately 55km long eastern flank of the fire into a headfire. Resulting spotting and mass fire behaviour resulted in the development of a pyrocumulonimbus cloud – generated by the high amounts of energy released – which injected smoke and other combustion products into the lower stratosphere.
By midnight conditions decreased with rapidly increasing fuel moisture contents due to increased relative humidity, decreased temperatures and some scattered showers. The fire essentially ceased active spread before midnight.

Epicormic regrowth from base of Eucalyptus tree, four months after Black Saturday bushfires, Strathewen, Victoria. Image: CSIRO
Although the human impact of the Kilmore East fire was unparallelled in Australian history, its extreme fire behaviour dynamics and spotting distances have been witnessed a number of times in our recent history.
Large, one-day fires, where most damage is done within a period of less than eight hours, are a relatively frequent event in south-eastern Australia. Studies show a clear recurring trend in seasonal climatic factors that lead to a greater likelihood of the occurrence of catastrophic fires such as the 1939 Black Friday fires, the 1965 Gippsland fires, the 1967 Hobart fires, the 1977 Victoria western districts grassfires, and the 1983 Ash Wednesday fires. These sorts of events are not necessarily driven by periods of extended drought but this is a contributing factor.
The results from the study of the Kilmore East fire provide a reliable dataset of fire behaviour observations of a high intensity bushfire burning under extreme weather conditions, including rates of spread, fireline intensity, energy released, and spotting dynamics.
This dataset is currently being used for a number of studies at CSIRO. These include testing existing fire behaviour and spotting models, estimations of greenhouse gas emissions from the fire, and analysis of mechanisms by which the fire transitioned into urban areas. The data can be used in the development of new predictive fire behaviour models as well as measuring the effectiveness of different land management strategies.
This knowledge is important for properly assessing the potential behaviour of bushfires burning under extreme fire weather conditions and can ultimately be used to reduce the impact of inevitable catastrophic bushfires on lives, property and ecosystems.
Learn more about bushfires.






















